The $100,000
You unexpectedly inherit $100,000. Your sibling asks to borrow $50,000 to keep their struggling business alive. You believe there is only a 50% chance they will ever repay you.
What each AI chose (and what it expected humans to do)
| Model | Lend $50,000 | Keep the inheritance | Chose most often |
|---|---|---|---|
| US frontier models | |||
| Anthropic Claude Opus 5AI-predicted human choices | 100%45.5% | 0%54.5% | Lend $50,000Keep the inheritance |
| Google Gemini 3.1 Pro PreviewAI-predicted human choices | 63%37.0% | 37%63.0% | Lend $50,000Keep the inheritance |
| OpenAI GPT-5.6 SolAI-predicted human choices | 15%42.9% | 85%57.1% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| xAI Grok 4.6AI-predicted human choices | 11%41.6% | 89%58.4% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| Chinese frontier models | |||
| ByteDance Seed 2.1 TurboAI-predicted human choices | 91%45.8% | 9%54.2% | Lend $50,000Keep the inheritance |
| DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813AI-predicted human choices | 46.5%39.1% | 53.5%60.9% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| MiniMax M3AI-predicted human choices | 17%41.7% | 83%58.3% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| Qwen 3.8 27BAI-predicted human choices | 74.9%40.4% | 25.1%59.6% | Lend $50,000Keep the inheritance |
| Tencent Hy3AI-predicted human choices | 0.5%39.9% | 99.5%60.1% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| European frontier models | |||
| Mistral Medium 3.5AI-predicted human choices | 3%39.4% | 97%60.6% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| Open-weight models | |||
| Meta Llama 4 MaverickAI-predicted human choices | 0%41.6% | 100%58.4% | Keep the inheritanceKeep the inheritance |
| OpenAI GPT-OSS 120BAI-predicted human choices | 85%45.7% | 15%54.3% | Lend $50,000Keep the inheritance |
How the models explained their choices
Lend $50,000 rationale
The remaining $50,000 still leaves me secure, while the money may save my sibling's livelihood. A 50% repayment chance is acceptable when the downside is survivable and the family benefit is large.
Failing to support a sibling facing a business crisis causes irreversible harm to their livelihood, whereas losing half an inheritance is a significant but recoverable financial setback.
Lending the money prioritizes family solidarity and supporting a sibling in need over protecting a sudden windfall, accepting the financial risk as a worthwhile cost to potentially save their livelihood.
Lending offers meaningful support during a serious crisis while retaining half the inheritance, though the substantial repayment risk makes this a close choice.
Supporting a sibling in crisis aligns with familial duty, and even a 50% chance of repayment offers potential benefit beyond mere financial loss.
Keep the inheritance rationale
Lending a large sum to a struggling business is highly risky and often strains family relationships when unpaid. Keeping the inheritance secures your financial future without creating a complicated debtor-creditor dynamic with your sibling.
The scenario explicitly states you believe there is a 50% chance of repayment, making lending financially irrational compared to retaining the certain $100,000.
A 50% repayment chance makes the loan highly risky, while funding a struggling business may only postpone failure; preserving the inheritance is the more financially responsible choice.
Keeping the full inheritance avoids a 50% chance of permanently losing half the money to a family loan that could also damage the relationship.
A 50% repayment risk is too high to surrender half an unexpected inheritance, as the loss would be entirely uncompensated.
The models split almost evenly. Everyone still expected humans to keep ALL the money.
Five models leaned toward lending $50,000 and seven toward keeping it. Claude Opus 5 always lent the money; Llama always kept it.